Population planning in Pakistan: How to meet the challenge?

Abstract

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Pakistan, after remaining 6+ children for many decades, has shown a decline in recent years and, according to a recent survey estimates, it is 5.3 children. This decline in TFR is further supported by the results of the 1998 Population Census of Pakistan, which indicates an average population growth rate of 2.6 percent per year between 1981-1998. Such evidence indicates the onset of fertility transition in Pakistan. However, these rates are still very high. Thus concerted efforts are needed to accelerate the pace of fertility transition. In view of strong socio-cultural influences on fertility behaviour, we have suggested the need of rapid social development, especially achievement of universal education in minimum possible time. Examples of Sri Lanka and of Kerala in India clearly establish that attainment of universal education brings an overall change in the behaviour towards rational thinking. Once such thinking is developed, fatalistic and traditional attitudes towards large family size will fade away and small family size norms will prevail in society. We also suggest continuation of the present population policy in general but in order to achieve zero population growth earlier than expected, we propose certain changes in the mechanism of service delivery, as immediate salvage lies in a very strong and effective family planning programme.