Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan

Abstract

In recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The water crisis in the country is projected to exacerbate in the coming years, especially in the southern parts. This dire situation calls for an investigation of major droughts, associated water scarcity, and changes in teleconnection patterns over Southern Pakistan. Moderate to low Southeastern monsoon (SEM) precipitation triggered the extreme drought episode (2017–2020) over Southern Pakistan and intensified the water scarcity. This study explored the severity of the respective drought event, underlying mechanisms, and changes in water scarcity over Southern Pakistan. To investigate the future changes (1980–2050) in water scarcity, coupling models (global hydrological models (GHMs)-global climate models (GCMs)) have been used to achieve the interannual performance of water availability and total water consumption. Besides, future scenarios used in this study are the combinations of SSPs and RCPs, including middle-of-the-road (SSP1-RCP4.5) and fossil-fueled development (SSP2-RCP8.5). The findings indicated a precipitation deficit of 45% during the 4-year (2017–2020), depicting the worst events in the past 50 years. South Pakistan observed the worst SEM droughts over the last 50 years, as 2000–2005 was the worst drought (precipitation deficit of 75%), followed by 2017–2020 with a 49% of precipitation deficit. Water scarcity was exacerbated by the extreme dry spells that developed over most of southern Pakistan between 2017 and 2020 as a result of moderate-to-exceptionally low SEM precipitation. Furthermore, this drought episode was accompanied by the cool phase in the Pacific and equatorial Indian Oceans. The future changes in water scarcity over the southern regions of Pakistan present a sharp increase under the SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario and are anticipated to be intensified in already stressed regions. This research is essential for environmentalists, and water resources managers, and provided crucial information to identify the hot spot areas in the target region so that water scarcity problems could be reduced in the future.