Modeling of economic risks of an industrial enterprise using a tree of logical possibilities

Abstract

The aim of the study is to simulate the probability of occurrence of economic risks in industrial enterprises using trees of logical possibilities, and the subsequent ability to manage them. To solve the set goal, the method of expert survey was used. The expert evaluation was carried out by the ranking method to determine the probability of occurrence of each of the economic risk components. The expert evaluation involved executives of industrial enterprises and managers of commercial banks. According to the research results, the risk assessment of an industrial enterprise should be focused on the study of the impact of primary economic risks. This can be done by building a tree of logical possibilities (usually called also logic tree) of occurrence of industrial, commercial, and financial risk components of the industrial enterprise. Visualization of the study using trees of logical possibilities along with conducted expert survey will help to establish quickly and clearly the levels of risk components and predict the state of the enterprise based on the actual circumstances.