Drought early warning in agri-food systems

Abstract

Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term re-duced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual fam-ine. Early action can prevent escalation of impacts, requiring drought early warning systems (DEWSs) that give current assessments and sufficient notice for active risk management. While most droughts are relatively slow in onset, often resulting in late responses, flash droughts are becoming more frequent, and their sudden onset poses challenging demands on DEWSs for timely communi-cation. We examine several DEWSs at global, regional, and national scales, with a special emphasis on agri-food systems. Many of these have been successful, such as some of the responses to 2015– 2017 droughts in Africa and Latin America. Successful examples show that early involvement of stakeholders, from DEWS development to implementation, is crucial. In addition, regional and global cooperation can cross-fertilize with new ideas, reduce reaction time, and raise efficiency. Broadening partnerships also includes recruiting citizen science and including seemingly subjective indigenous knowledge that can improve monitoring, data collection, and uptake of response measures. More precise and more useful DEWSs in agri-food systems will prove even more cost-effective in averting the need for emergency responses, improving global food security.