Gaussian Process Decentralized Data Fusion and Active Sensing for Spatiotemporal Traffic Modeling and Prediction in Mobility-on-Demand Systems

Abstract

Mobility-on-demand (MoD) systems have recently emerged as a promising paradigm of one-way vehicle sharing for sustainable personal urban mobility in densely populated cities. We assume the capability of a MoD system to be enhanced by deploying robotic shared vehicles that can autonomously cruise the streets to be hailed by users. A key challenge of the MoD system is that of real-time, fine-grained mobility demand and traffic flow sensing and prediction. This paper presents novel Gaussian process (GP) decentralized data fusion and active sensing algorithms for real-time, fine-grained traffic modeling and prediction with a fleet of MoD vehicles. The predictive performance of our decentralized data fusion algorithms are theoretically guaranteed to be equivalent to that of sophisticated centralized sparse GP approximations. We derive consensus filtering variants requiring only local communication between neighboring vehicles. We theoretically guarantee the performance of our decentralized active sensing algorithms. When they are used to gather informative data for mobility demand prediction, they can achieve a dual effect of fleet rebalancing to service mobility demands. Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets shows that our algorithms are significantly more time-efficient and scalable in the size of data and fleet while achieving predictive performance comparable to that of state-of-the-art algorithms.