Analysis of The Effectiveness of The Folu Net Sink 2030 Program on National Emission Targets

Abstract

The Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink 2030 program represents Indonesia’s primary strategy to achieve national emission reduction commitments. This study evaluates the effectiveness of FOLU Net Sink implementation during 2020–2024 using a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach guided by Snyder (2019) and Tranfield et al. (2003), with thematic analysis based on Braun and Clarke (2021). Findings indicate substantial progress, including record-low deforestation, expanded peatland restoration, mangrove rehabilitation, and strengthened forest moratorium and national MRV systems. However, challenges remain, including regional capacity disparities, climate-risk exposure such as El Niño events, financing gaps, and carbon market integrity concerns. The analysis underscores the need for cross-sector policy harmonization, independent verification mechanisms, and sustainable climate financing, including carbon market instruments. Strengthening institutional capacity, community participation, and spatial monitoring capabilities will be essential for Indonesia to achieve the FOLU Net Sink target and reinforce its leadership in global climate governance.