Studying Long-Term Nutrient Variations in Semi-Enclosed Bays Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Methods: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China

Abstract

Semi-enclosed bays are greatly affected by human activities and have undergone drastic changes in their ecological environment, which requires our continuous attention. Laizhou Bay (LZB) is a typical semi-closed bay that is greatly influenced by human activities, and it is highly representative on a global scale. Investigating the multi-scale variation in nutrient concentrations in semi-enclosed bays can provide scientific support for environmental management and policy adjustments. To address the limitations of in situ data and the high cost of field surveys, this study utilizes machine learning methods to construct MODIS remote sensing models for quantitatively analyzing the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in the surface water of LZB, as well as the spatiotemporal factors influencing them. Among various methods tested, the Support Vector Machine Regression (SVR) algorithm demonstrated the best performance in retrieving nutrient concentrations in LZB. The R2 values of the DIN and DIP retrieval results based on the SVR algorithm are 0.91 and 0.92, respectively, while the RMSE values are 5.43 and 0.08 μmol/L, respectively. The retrieval results indicate that nearshore nutrient concentrations are significantly higher than those in offshore areas. Temporally, from 2003 to 2024, the DIN concentration in l has decreased at a rate of 0.4 μmol/L/yr, while the DIP concentration has remained relatively stable. Given sufficient observation data, the proposed machine learning and remote sensing approach can be effectively applied to other bays, offering the advantages of long time series, high spatial resolution, and a low cost.