Using Species Distribution Modeling to Assess Factors that Determine the Distribution of Two Parapatric Howlers (Alouatta spp.) in South America

Abstract

Through presence-only data, ecological niche modeling can use environmental variables to generate maps of areas that are potentially suitable for the presence of a species, improving our knowledge of its niche requirements and extending our understanding of its geographic distribution. We used the ecological niche model MaxEnt to predict the potential distribution of black-and-gold howlers (Alouatta caraya) and brown howlers (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in South America, as well as the potential sympatry area between both species. We modeled distributions of Alouatta caraya (196 presence localities, 8 bioclimatic variables) and A. guariba clamitans (74 presence localities, 13 bioclimatic variables) using bioclimatic variables from WorldClim with habitat suitability categorized as low, moderate, or high. Alouatta caraya showed a broader potential distribution, occupying a wide variety of habitats in a broad range of temperatures. Temperature annual range (Bio 7) was the bioclimatic variable with most influence in modeling the potential distribution of this species. Alouatta guariba clamitans was more restricted to rainy areas of mature forests at higher altitudes with low minimum temperatures. Mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio 11) was the bioclimatic variable with the highest influence in this model. The predicted area of potential sympatry of both species was a relatively small area in the interior Atlantic Forest ecoregion, and a new syntopy locality occurred within the predicted area of sympatry. This narrow zone of overlap could be maintained, among other causes, by the role of the Paraná River as a natural barrier for dispersion, differences in niche requirements, potential interspecific competition, and hybridization.