High spatial resolution prediction of tritium (3H) in contemporary global precipitation

Abstract

Tritium (3H) in Earth’s precipitation is vigilantly monitored since historical nuclear bomb tests because of radiological protection considerations and its invaluable role as a tracer of the global water cycle in quantifying surface, groundwater, and oceanic fluxes. For hydrological applications, accurate knowledge of 3H in contemporary local precipitation is prerequisite for dating of critical zone water and calibrating hydrogeologic transport and groundwater protection models. However, local tritium input in precipitation is hard to constrain due to few 3H observation sites. We present new high-spatial resolution global prediction maps of multi-year mean 3H in contemporary “post-bomb” (2008–2018) precipitation by using a robust regression model based on environmental and geospatial covariates. The model accurately predicted the mean annual 3H in precipitation, which allowed us to produce global 3H input maps for applications in hydrological and climate modelling. The spatial patterns revealed natural 3H in contemporary precipitation sufficient for practical hydrological applications (1–25 TU) but variable across continental regions and higher latitudes due to cumulative influences of cyclical neutron fluxes, stratospheric inputs, and distance from tropospheric moisture sources. The new 3H maps provide a foundational resource for improved calibration of groundwater flow models and critical zone vulnerability assessment and provides an operational baseline for quantifying the potential impact of future anthropogenic nuclear activities and hydroclimatic changes.