Living donor liver transplantation in children: Perioperative risk factors and a nomogram for prediction of survival

Abstract

Background. Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in children has achieved promising outcomes during the past few decades. However, it still poses various challenges. This study aimed to analyze perioperative risk factors for postoperative death in pediatric LDLT. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed medical records of pediatric patients who underwent LDLT surgery from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2016, in our hospital. Predictors of mortality following LDLT were analyzed in 430 children. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis were used for covariates selection. A nomogram was developed to estimate overall survival probability. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. Among the 430 patients in this cohort (median [interquartile range] age, 7 [6.10] mo; 189 [43.9%] female; 391 [90.9%] biliary atresia), the overall survival was 91.4% (95% confidence interval, 89.2-94.4), and most of the death events (36/37) happened within 6 months after the surgery. Multivariate analysis indicated that the Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease score, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio, graft-to-recipient weight ratio, and intraoperative norepinephrine infusion were independent prognostic factors. A novel nomogram was developed based on these prognostic factors. The C index for the final model was 0.764 (95% confidence interval, 0.701-0.819). Decision curve analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve suggested that this novel nomogram performed well at predicting mortality of pediatric LDLT. Conclusions. We identified several perioperative risk factors for mortality of pediatric LDLT. And the newly developed nomogram can be a convenient individualized tool in estimating the prognosis of pediatric LDLT.