Evaluation and Prediction of Comprehensive Efficiency of Wind Power System in China Based on Two-Stage EBM Model and FNN Model

Abstract

Wind power is a core component of a clean energy system. The efficiency of a wind power system evolves through coordinated interactions. These interactions occur among three regional subsystems: resource subsystem, technology subsystem, and economy subsystem. To reveal the operational mechanisms of its internal subsystems, this study analyzes the comprehensive efficiency of the wind power system in China from 2010 to 2022. The two-stage EBM model, the Tobit regression model and the feedforward neural network model are employed in combination. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive efficiency of the wind power system has gradually improved, but shows spatiotemporal variations due to uneven subsystem coordination. (2) The improvement of efficiency is characterized by stages. The optimization of technology subsystems drives the development stage, while economic scaling dominates the operation stage (though operation and maintenance technologies remain deficient). (3) The correlation between development and operation stages is suboptimal, and the coordination of subsystems remains weak. (4) Technology innovation and electricity demand boost comprehensive efficiency, while human resources hinder it. Extreme weather exerts either a contributing or an interfering effect on the system. (5) Future projections show continued efficiency growth. The study concludes with cross-system coordination strategies to enhance the contribution of wind power in clean energy.