Combined impacts of climate and land use changes on long-term streamflow in the upper halda basin, Bangladesh

Abstract

In Bangladesh, rapid population growth and associated land-use changes are escalating water scarcity issues, which will be further exacerbated under ongoing climate change. As such, predicting the consequences of climate and land-use change on freshwater supplies is critical for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with a Land Cover Model (LCM) were used to simulate long-term stream flows in the Halda Basin, Bangladesh, under baseline and future climate and land-use change scenarios. In addition, the separate and combined impacts of both types of change on long-term streamflow projections were assessed. Results indicate that by the 2060s, the maximum temperature of the Halda Basin may rise by 1.6◦C in comparison to the baseline 1986–2005 period, while minimum temperature will also increase, albeit at a lower rate than maximum temperature. Precipitation during the dry season is expected to increase, although it may decline in the monsoon period. Simulations show that these changes in climate are likely to increase future streamflow in the Halda catchment, with monthly streamflow influenced mainly by the variability in precipitation. The LCM projected decreases in grassland along with cultivated land at the expense of artificial areas. Combined, future climate and land-use changes are projected to increase annual streamflow, with climate change likely to be a greater driver of altered streamflow than land-use changes. Our results should guide environmental management authorities in more sustainable and strategic water resource planning under global climate change.