Anatomy of moist heatwaves in India during the summer monsoon season

Abstract

Moist heat impairs the human body’s ability to cool through sweat-based evaporative cooling, posing a serious health risk. In India, this risk is especially acute, since the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) brings abundant moisture, and socio–economic conditions significantly increase the exposure and vulnerability to moist heat. However, there is a limited understanding of the characteristics and large-scale drivers of moist heatwaves during the ISM. This study uses the ERA5 reanalysis to analyse moist heatwaves and their relationship with active and break periods of the ISM during 1940–2023. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (Tw) anomalies reveals that the first two principal components (PCs) explain key patterns of variability of moist heatwaves, with PC1 controlling their occurrence and PC2 controlling their spatial extent. Whilst breaks in the monsoon favour moist heatwaves in eastern and peninsular India, active rainfall events, corresponding to phases 5–7 of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation, favour moist heatwaves in northern and northwestern India. Specific humidity plays a larger role than dry-bulb temperature in controlling Tw variability in India. The results of this study reveal important characteristics of moist heatwaves during the ISM and offer potential for developing forecasting tools, which could ultimately benefit stakeholders in India.