Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries

Abstract

Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (∼ 1.5°C globally, and up to 12°C in DJF at northern high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22nd century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variables examined.