Reconstrucción de la precipitación invierno-primavera con base en anillos de crecimiento de árboles para la región de San Dimas, Durango, México

Abstract

The studies on reconstruction of paleoclimatic series play an important role in analyzing regional climate variability when instrumental information is not available. Tree-ring samples from stands of Pinus durangensis, Pinus cooperi and Pinus lumholtzii were used to generate chronologies in order to reconstruct and analyze the historical hydroclimatic variability for the region of San Dimas, Durango, Mexico. A principal component analysis (PCA) indicates that those series showed a common variability; subsequently, a regional series was developed covering a period of 294 years. An analysis of response function suggests that the most important climate variable influencing tree growth was the seasonal winter-spring precipitation (January-June), which accounted for 52 % of the variability. Reconstruction of the variability of the winter-spring precipitation for the last three centuries was possible. Such a profile allowed us to identify important drought periods (1740-1746, 1766-1780, 1785-1786, 1819-1824, 1890-1900, 1935-1940, 1950-1957 and 2011-2015). Because of their extension, the periods 1766-1780, 1890-1900 and 1950-1957 were the longest. Based on historical records, four events of severe drought (1785-1786, 1935-1940, 1891-1902 and 1950) were associated with strong havoc in central Mexico and their effects were extended to northern Mexico. In addition, a wavelet coherence analysis suggests a strong relationship between the reconstructed precipitation (Winter-Spring) and NIÑO 3 SST (December to February) in phase from 1770 to 1978 with frequencies from 1 to 5 years, ENSO has significantly modulated climate variability in this region of the state of Durango.