Risk of severe coronavirus disease in imported and secondary cases in Zhejiang province, China

Abstract

Background To our knowledge, no previous studies have focused on determining whether the virulence and case fatality rate of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) decreases as the virus continues to spread. Hence, our aim was to retrospectively explore the differences in the risk of severe or critical COVID-19 among imported, secondary and tertiary cases in Zhejiang, China. Methods We categorized COVID-19 cases reported by hospitals in Zhejiang as first-, second- and third-generation cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to compare disease severity and case generation. Results Of 1187 COVID-19 cases, 227 (19.1%, 95% CI: 16.9-21.4) manifested severe or critical illness. The adjusted risk difference for severe or critical illness was lower for second- (odds ratio (OR) = 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-1.36) and third-generation (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) cases than for first-generation cases. Compared with hospitalized patients, cases identified at centralized isolation locations (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.40-0.97) and those identified through active search or gateway screening (OR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.08-1.04) were at a lower risk of severe or critical illness. Conclusions Second- and third-generation cases of COVID-19 have a lower risk of developing severe or critical illness than first-generation cases.