Forecasts, ethics and financial behaviour: Another reading of economic crises

Abstract

The forecasts of economic agents are not without influence on financial markets’ fluctuations. The recent subprime crisis has shown that incorrect use of information available on the markets added to the creation of complex financial instruments can have major consequences, not only in financial terms, but also on the real economy. Based on a study of three European countries, France, Germany and the UK, the goal of this paper is to assess how more ethical practices among economic agents can reduce the volatility of financial markets and stabilise the business cycles. This should lead to greater stability for European economies. After discussing the various possible forms that the forecasts of economic agents can take, we will study their correlation with business cycles. The final section will be dedicated to formulating various hypotheses and scenarios for explaining speculative cycles and how to control them with more ethical practices.