The tolerable windows approach: Theoretical and methodological foundations

Abstract

The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call tolerable windows, can be purely systemic in nature - like critical thresholds for the North Atlantic Deep Water formation or of a normative type - like minimum standards for per-capita food production worldwide. Starting from this catalogue of knock-out criteria and using appropriate modeling techniques, those policy strategies which are compatible with all the constraints specified are sought to be identified. In additional to the discussion of the basic elements and the general theory of the TW approach, a modeling exercise is carried out, based on simple models and assumptions adopted from the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis shows that if the global mean temperature is restricted to 2 °C beyond the preindustrial level, the cumulative emissions of CO2 are asymptotically limited to about 1550 Gt C. Yet the temporal distribution of these emissions is also determined by the climate anti socio-economic constraints: using, for example, a maximal tolerable rate of temperature change of 0.2 °C/dec and a smoothly varying emissions profile, we obtain the maximal cumulative emissions, amounting to 370 Gt C in 2050 and 585 Gt C in 2100.