Forecasting oil consumption with attention-based IndRNN optimized by adaptive differential evolution

Abstract

Accurate prediction of oil consumption plays a dominant role in oil supply chain management. However, because of the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, oil consumption has exhibited an uncertain and volatile trend, which leads to a huge challenge to accurate predictions. The rapid development of the Internet provides countless online information (e.g., online news) that can benefit predict oil consumption. This study adopts a novel news-based oil consumption prediction methodology–convolutional neural network (CNN) to fetch online news information automatically, thereby illustrating the contribution of text features for oil consumption prediction. This study also proposes a new approach called attention-based JADE-IndRNN that combines adaptive differential evolution (adaptive differential evolution with optional external archive, JADE) with an attention-based independent recurrent neural network (IndRNN) to forecast monthly oil consumption. Experimental results further indicate that the proposed news-based oil consumption prediction methodology improves on the traditional techniques without online oil news significantly, as the news might contain some explanations of the relevant confinement or reopen policies during the COVID-19 period.