A weekend load forecasting model based on semi-parametric regression analysis considering weather and load interaction

Abstract

Compared to the load characteristics of normal working days, weekend load characteristics have a low level of load and are sensitive to meteorological conditions, which influences the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting. To solve this problem and to improve the accuracy of short-term weekend-load forecasting, a Semi-parametric weekend-load forecasting method based on the interaction between meteorological and load is proposed in this paper. The main work is shown as follows: (1) through separating weekend-load from normal-load and analyzing the correlation between meteorological factors and daily maximum load, the meteorological factors with parameter characteristics and non-parameter characteristics can be screened out; (2) a short-term weekend-load forecasting model is built according to Semi-parametric regression theory which can express the coupling relation between meteorology and load more realistically; (3) the effect of temperature accumulation is also considered to correct the forecasting model. The proposed method is proved by implementing short-term weekend-load forecasting on the real historical data of the Southern Power Grid in China. The result shows that the 96-point mean load forecasting accuracy obtained by this model can meet the requirement of power network operation.