Shamals and climate variability in the Northern Arabian/Persian Gulf from 1973 to 2012

Abstract

This paper presents key results from analysis of surface meteorological observations collected in the Northern Arabian/Persian Gulf (N Gulf; Kuwait, Bahrain, and NE Saudi Arabia), which spans a 40-years period (1973-2012). The first part of this study analyzes climate variability in the N Gulf, and relates them to teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole). Results of the analysis indicate that during the study period the climate in the region experienced a general trend of increase in temperature (0.8°C), decrease in barometric pressure (1 mbar), reduction in humidity (6%), and decrease in visibility (9%). Significant correlations were found between the three teleconnection patterns and the meteorological conditions suggesting that seasonal variabilities in air temperature, barometric pressure, and precipitation are closely related to the teleconnection patterns. The second part of this study examines the 40-year variability of Shamal events (strong NW winds that commonly generate significant dust storms). The data suggests that on average Shamal events occur at a rate of 10 events year-1 with 85% of the events occurring during the summer and winter. The number of these events has increased in the past 14 years of the study period. These events resulted in abrupt changes in meteorological conditions: an increase in wind speed of 2.7 m s-1, a decrease in visibility of 1.7 km, and reduction in humidity of 4.3%. Seasonal variations in temperature (an increase in temperature during summer of 0.8°C, and a decrease of 1.5°C during winter) and barometric pressure (a decrease in barometric pressure during summer of 0.6 mbar and an increase of 7.8 mbar during winter) were observed during Shamal events.