Forward propagation of parametric uncertainties through models of NDE inspection scenarios

Abstract

Forward uncertainty propagation has been a topic of interest to NDE researchers for several years. To this point, the purpose has been to gain an understanding of the uncertainties that can be seen in signals from NDE sensors given uncertainties in the geometric and material parameters of the problem. However, a complex analysis of an inspection scenario with high variability has not been performed. Furthermore, these methods have not seen direct practical application in the areas of model assisted probability of detection or inverse problems. In this paper, uncertainty due to spatial heterogeneity in material systems that undergo NDE inspection will be discussed. Propagation of this uncertainty through forward models of inspection scenarios will be outlined and the mechanisms for representing the spatial heterogeneity will be explained in detail. Examples will be provided that illustrate the effect of high variability in uncertainty propagation in the context of forward modeling.