Development of Quantitative Models Representing Spatio-temporal Distribution of Seismicity

Abstract

In recent years, many researchers in seismicity analysis have focused on earthquake triggering or fault interactions.To evaluate these phenomena quantitatively, models for the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic activity have been constructed. This review paper introduces two important models : the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model developed by Y. Ogata and a seismicity model based on rate- and state-dependent friction law by J. Dieterich. The former is a pure statistical model, while the latter includes some physical parameters in its derivation.These two models now play separate role in probabilistic earthquake forecasting. For further achievement in the probabilistic earthquake forecasting, the integration of the two contrasting models should be considered. Further development of models would give new insights into earthquake occurrence.