BIFM: Big-Data Driven Intelligent Forecasting Model for COVID-19

Abstract

Ever since the pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China, it has been recognized as a global threat and several studies have been carried out nationally and globally to predict the outbreak with varying levels of dependability and accuracy. Also, the mobility restrictions have had a widespread impact on people's behavior such as fear of using public transportation (traveling with unknown passengers in the closed area). Securing an appropriate level of safety during the pandemic situation is a highly problematic issue that resulted from the transportation sector which has been hit hard by COVID-19. This paper focuses on developing an intelligent computing model for forecasting the outbreak of COVID-19. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) machine learning model is used to develop the best model for twenty-one worst-affected states of India and six worst-hit countries of the world including India. The best ARIMA models are used for predicting the daily-confirmed cases for 90 days future values of six worst-hit countries of the world and six high incidence states of India. The goodness-of-fit measures for the model achieved 85% MAPE for all the countries and all states of India. The above computational analysis will be able to throw some light on the planning and management of healthcare systems and infrastructure.