Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model

Abstract

With the continuous advancement of China's supply-side structural reform, the country's energy consumption structure has undergone considerable changes, including an overall reduction in fossil energy use and a rapid increase in clean energy application. In the context of China's coal overcapacity, port and rail capacities are difficult to change in the short term. This study forecasts the monthly coal traffic of Daqin Railway on the basis of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-Average Markov model and then uses the monthly coal transport data of this railway from September 2009 to November 2019 as samples for model training and verification. Coal traffic from December 2019 to September 2020 is accurately predicted. This study also analyzes the effects of China's industrial structure adjustment, clean energy utilization, and low-carbon usage on the coal transport volume of Daqin Railway. In addition, the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation and the development trend of Daqin Railway's coal traffic are explored. This study provides a reference for adjusting the train operation chart of Daqin Railway's coal transport and developing a special coal train operation plan. It can determine the time of coal transport peak warning, improve the efficiency of coal transport management, and eventually realize a reasonable allocation of resources for Daqin Railway.