APTITUDE OF COFFEE (COFFEA ARABICA L.) AND CACAO (THEOBROMA CACAO L.) CROPS CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

The areas of current and future aptitude for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) and coffee (Coffea arabica L.) crops were evaluated, in climate change scenarios in the Soconusco region, Chiapas, Mexico and the areas where the aptitude of the land increased or decreased were defined. The above provides information to recommend its management and conservation. Two methodologies were used: weighting of factors and limiting factors; both based on the optimal and extreme tolerance values of each crop for each edaphoclimatic requirement. First one, for the determination of potential areas for the establishment of crops; the second one, for differentiation of the combinations of environmental variables that took place within the study area. Climate change scenarios were evaluated and the distribution and aptitude areas were determined. Also, a comparison was made between current and future suitability for both crops to quantify the impact of climate change. The results indicate that the future aptitude of the land will have a decrease in the potential areas for the establishment of both crops that range between 4.5 and 4.8 % for coffee and from 7.2 to 9.3 % for cocoa.