Forecasting Number of COVID-19 in Bali Province Using Neural Network Algorithm

Abstract

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is a large family of viruses that cause mild to severe illness, such as the common cold or colds and serious illnesses such as MERS and SARS. COVID-19 has become a pandemic, meaning that there has been an increase in cases of the disease which is quite fast and there has been spread between countries and caused enormous losses in various countries. The increasing number of COVID-19 cases every day in Indonesia, including in Bali Province and the resulting losses underlie the forecasting of the number of COVID-19 in Bali Province. Forecasting is carried out using the Neural Network algorithm for time series data on the number of COVID-19 in Bali Province. The data used is data on the number of COVID-19 in the Bali Province in the form of time series data sourced from the Bali Provincial Health Office. The entire forecasting process uses the Rapidminer Studio tools starting from preprocessing, modeling, testing and validation. The results of the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) evaluation value based on testing for the positive patients were 18.956, the patients recovered were 15.413, the patients under treatment were 5.066 and the patients who died was 0.233.