GIS-based modeling of snowmelt-induced landslide susceptibility of sensitive marine clays

Abstract

In this study, a simulation tool, based on the combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS), is developed to assess and predict the snowmelt-induced landslides in areas of sensitive marine clays in the Ottawa region (Canada). Topographic, geologic, hydrologic, and geotechnical information of the study area, in addition to snowmelt intensity data for different periods, was required to conduct this modeling study. Snowmelt intensity records for periods of 6–48 h, 3–15 days, 25 days, and 30 days, as well as the information on historical landslides in the study area, were used to examine both the timing and location of shallow landslides due to snowmelt across the Ottawa region. The developed tool is validated by comparing the predicted landslide-susceptible areas with the historical landslide maps in the study area. A good agreement between the predicted and recorded historical landslides was obtained, which suggests that the developed GIS-TRIGRS based tool can predict relatively well the snowmelt-induced landslide susceptibility in the sensitive marine clays. The modeling results show that high slope areas of sensitive marine clays are more prone to snowmelt-induced landslides. As a result, this simulation tool could be used to assess and/or predict snowmelt-induced landslides in different areas of the Ottawa region, which is an important means for decision-making processes with respect to protecting the population and infrastructure against snow-melt induced marine clay landslides.