Barrier analysis for the deployment of renewable-based mini-grids in Myanmar using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Abstract

Energy access remains a challenge for many countries, as recognized by sustainable development goal 7 of the United Nations Development Programme. Although the Myanmar government has set a target of 100% electrification by 2030, less than half of the households are currently connected to the national grid. To expedite electrification, decentralized approaches should be considered. Mini-grids are an effective alternative that can fill the gap between a solar home system and the national grid; however, many of the existing mini-grids in Myanmar are powered by diesel generators. Diesel fuel is significantly more expensive in rural areas than in urban areas due to high transportation costs. Although mini-grids powered by solar photovoltaics and batteries are cost-competitive with diesel generators, the deployment of renewable energy-based mini-grids is slow. In this study, we analyzed the barriers to mini-grid deployment and prioritized the barriers. We conducted a questionnaire survey with stakeholders using the analytic hierarchy process to identify the prioritization of each barrier factor. The K-means clustering method was used to determine tendencies and showed that there was no single, dominant solution. Our results confirm the difficulty of mini-grid deployment and suggest multi-pronged approaches that go beyond economic considerations.