The Impact of Climate Change on River Alternate Bars

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of flow discharge in rivers worldwide. We study the impact of climate-driven flow changes on the shape of riverbed, and specifically on alternate bars, large deposits of gravel/sand that often form in rivers. We consider the illustrative example of the Alpine Rhine River, showing two nearby reaches with similar hydro-morphological characteristics, but different channel width. Hydrological projections are obtained from literature, while the evolution of alternate bars is predicted through a novel, semi-analytical model. Results show a remarkably different behavior of the two reaches: the upstream one, being wide enough for a full development of alternate bars, is resistant to flow alterations; the downstream reach, whose width is close to threshold conditions, is highly susceptible to future changes, showing a strong tendency to increase bar prominence. These findings reflect a general tendency of near-threshold geomorphic systems to be vulnerable to anthropic stressors.