Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This study aims to determine the current and future potential distribution of Pistacia vera L. (pistachio) in Türkiye under various climate change scenarios using the MaxEnt modeling approach. The results indicate that, under present climatic conditions, the most suitable areas for pistachio cultivation are concentrated in Southeastern Anatolia, particularly around Gaziantep, Kilis, Şanlıurfa, Mardin, and Siirt. However, future projections suggest substantial contractions of these areas, with the species’ potential habitats retreating to microclimatic refugial zones. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, elevated temperature and drought stress render most of the current production regions unsuitable. Variable contribution analysis and marginal response curves have identified elevation as the most influential environmental factor shaping potential distribution. Other significant predictors include the maximum temperature of the warmest month (BIO5), terrain ruggedness, and annual precipitation (BIO12), indicating the species’ strong adaptation to semi-arid, low-elevation habitats. The modeling outcomes highlight the urgent need to develop effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on pistachio production. Recommended measures include integrated water and soil management, selection of suitable rootstocks and cultivars, control of yield periodicity, adoption of digital agriculture technologies, and farmer training. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the species’ distribution patterns are closely linked to topographic, climatic, and physiological factors, which underscor the necessity of integrating climate-based risk assessments into future agricultural planning. In conclusion, safeguarding the sustainability of P. vera cultivation under changing climatic conditions requires the formulation of region-specific, science-based adaptation policies. Such strategies will not only help to maintain pistachio production but also contribute to the conservation of Türkiye’s biodiversity and the resilience of rural economies.