Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone

Abstract

Antarctic ice shelves buttress the flow of the ice sheet but are vulnerable to increased basal melting from contact with a warming ocean and increased mass loss from calving due to changing flow patterns. Channels and similar features at the bases of ice shelves have been linked to enhanced basal melting and observed to intersect the grounding zone, where the greatest melt rates are often observed. The ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is especially vulnerable to basal melt and grounding zone retreat because the glacier has a retrograde bed leading to a deep trough below the grounded ice sheet. We use digital surface models from 2010-2022 to investigate the evolution of its ice-shelf channels, grounding zone position, and the interactions between them. We find that the highest sustained rates of grounding zone retreat (up to 0.7 kmyr-1) are associated with high basal melt rates (up to ∼250 myr-1) and are found where ice-shelf channels intersect the grounding zone, especially atop steep local retrograde slopes where subglacial channel discharge is expected. We find no areas with sustained grounding zone advance, although some secular retreat was distal from ice-shelf channels. Pinpointing other locations with similar risk factors could focus assessments of vulnerability to grounding zone retreat.