Hydro-Climatic Modelling for Water Resources: From Processes to Adaptive Management and Governance

Abstract

This paper focuses on the hydro-climatic dimension of climate modelling, emphasising how methodological advances translate into implications for water resources and adaptive governance. Moving beyond a general review, it consolidates the link between climate science and hydrology by examining how improvements in model design, process representation and uncertainty management inform practical water strategies. The analysis highlights key developments within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), including the integration of biogeochemical cycles, refined parameterisations and expanded socio-economic scenarios. Persistent challenges remain in simulating precipitation and cross-scale feedbacks, which directly constrain hydrological projections. Innovative approaches—such as high-resolution modelling, emulators and machine learning (ML)—are presented as promising tools to refine process fidelity and bridge global-to-local scales. By situating these technical frontiers within governance debates, the paper clarifies how uncertainty informs adaptive strategies and decision-making. This interdisciplinary perspective advances the understanding of hydrological processes within the climate system while charting actionable pathways for sustainable and resilient water management.