Central Jakarta Rainfall Intensity Forecast using Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Rainfall is the precipitation amount that is falling from clouds. In extreme conditions, rainfall could arise many problems. It is the leading cause of landslides and flood disasters. In D.K.I. Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, rainfall intensity plays a very vital role since it could easily be puddled and caused floods in many areas. Therefore, in this study, we try to make a rainfall intensity prediction in Central Jakarta using a very popular forecasting method, i.e., the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Based on the experiments conducted using Phatsa, it can be concluded that the SES method has been successfully used to predict rainfall intensity. However, it cannot give a very good prediction result due to its high forecast error values.