Analysis of energy demand scenarios in ecuador: National government policy perspectives and global trend to reduce CO 2 emissions

Abstract

The structure of Ecuador’s energy matrix over the past 15 years has varied, but in general, the three dominant sources of energy in the country are: Oil, hydroelectricity and biomass. In recent years, hydro energy has had a great boost with the construction of important hydroelectric projects, which has allowed to achieve important generation of energy from renewable sources. A system dynamics model evaluates the scenarios of Ecuador’s energy model. The analysis describes the relationship between dynamic factors, such as policies, energy dependence and demand. National governmental political scenarios and global trends mark the way forward in search of reduction of energy consumption, energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions mitigation. The results forecast future scenarios and trends in the supply and demand of energy and CO 2 emissions projected until 2030.