Spatial analysis of food security in Iran: associated factors and governmental support policies

Abstract

This study analyzes caloric intake in Iran as a proxy for food security to determine factors associated with caloric intake that could be impacted by policies. We modeled regional heterogeneity by analyzing a complete countrywide dataset disaggregated for rural intra-provincial areas using unique data from the Iranian Statistical Centre for 2007–2016. We applied logistic regression modeling and likelihood ratio tests to assess the association between socio-economic determinants and caloric intake among rural areas of all provinces. National policies (nation-wide food subsidies and a cash equivalent for food for each adult regardless of residence or income) had significant negative associations with caloric intake among all provinces. The detected spatial diversity suggests policies specific to each area could be more effective than a centralized national policy for food security. Rather than implementing one-size-fits-all policies, such as across-the-board cash food subsidies, the government should take a differential spatially targeted approach to directly support low-income households.