A technology-based global non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emission inventory under the MEIC framework

Abstract

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) play a crucial role in tropospheric atmospheric chemistry. Developing accurate NMVOC emission inventories is essential for chemical transport modeling and pollution mitigation. While global NMVOC emissions have been estimated in several inventories, representing the impacts of technology evolution on NMVOC emission dynamics remains challenging. Here, we developed a technology-based global NMVOC emission inventory (MEIC-global-NMVOC) under the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory model for Climate and air pollution research (MEIC) framework to better represent NMVOC emission evolution and drivers. We compiled spatially and temporally full-coverage and consistent activity rates from multiple sources using data fusion and reconstruction approaches. Next, we estimated the evolution of technology distributions and emission control measures by data-driven and policy-driven technology turnover models. The dynamics of global anthropogenic NMVOC emissions during 1970-2020 were presented by sector, fuel type, and product, highlighting activity growth and technology development as key drivers. In developing regions, emission growth was driven by surges in activity rates but curbed by advanced combustion technologies, improved vehicle standards, and substitution of solvent-borne paints. In developed regions, besides the mitigation measures above, emission control technologies substantially reduced fugitive emissions from energy production and emissions from solvent use, driven by policies such as the U.S. New Source Performance Standards and European Union Directives. Despite large uncertainties, MEIC-global-NMVOC emission estimates were generally comparable with other emission inventories at aggregated level for global or regional totals, but remarkable sectoral differences remained. The MEIC-global-NMVOC emission inventory offers a new database for atmospheric chemistry and pollution mitigation research.