Conservation palaeobiology and the shape of things to come

Abstract

Conservation decision-making is a forward-looking process that involves choices among alternative images of how the future will unfold. Scenarios, easily understood as stories about plausible futures, are emerging as a powerful approach used by the conservation community to define a range of socio-ecological futures when standard, predictive modelling approaches to decision-making are inappropriate, providing a framework for making robust decisions under uncertainties. Conservation palaeobiologists can help the conservation community imagine the future. The utility of the past centres on orienting us to the present-grounding the future in the realm of what is plausible-by providing context against which to think about future scenarios, which may help stakeholders and decision-makers to develop a new mental map of a conservation problem, inspiring our intentions and moving us purposefully toward a desirable tomorrow. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'.