Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of grain self-sufficiency in China

Abstract

The pattern of grain self-sufficiency plays a fundamental role in maintaining food security. We analyzed the patterns and determinants of grain production and demand, as well as grain selfsufficiency, in China over a 30-year period. The results show that China’s total grain production, with an obvious northeast–southwest direction, increased by 63%, and yields of rice, wheat, corn, tubers, and beans increased by 16, 49, 224, 6, and 103%, respectively. The trends in ration and feed grain consumption changes at the provincial scale were roughly the same as at the national scale, with the ration consumption ratio decreasing and the ratio of feed grain consumption increasing. The ration consumption in Northwest China was relatively high, while the feed grain consumption rates in Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing were higher. Compared with ration and feed grain, the proportions of seed grain and grain loss were relatively small. China’s grain consumption mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. Total grain, rice, corn, wheat, tubers, and beans consumption in feed grain showed a northeast–southwest trend, with consumption centers all shifting southward in the 30-year period. Corn accounted for the largest proportion in feed grain, followed by beans. Urban feed grain and urban ration hot spot areas have gradually transferred from the northwest to southeast coastal areas. The hot spots of rural feed grain consumption and rural ration consumption remained almost unchanged, located in the south of the Yangtze River and Central and Southern China, respectively. The grain self-sufficiency level developed well in the study period, while the areas with grain deficit were Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The areas with high supply and high demand were mainly located in Central and East China, the areas with high supply and low demand were mainly distributed in Northeast China, and the areas with low supply and low demand were mainly located in Western China. The pattern of self-sufficiency of corn in feed grain has remained basically unchanged; the areas with corn feed grain deficit were Central and Southeast China, while North China had corn feed grain surplus. Compared with corn feed, the surplus of soybean feed was relatively poor. Factor detector analysis revealed that in different periods, the same impact factor had different explanatory power in the supply and demand pattern, and the comprehensive consideration of any two factors will enhance the explanatory power of grain supply and demand pattern.