Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Load with Combinations of Singular Spectrum Analysis

Abstract

Accurate electricity demand forecasting can provide a timely and effective reference for economic control and facilitate the secure production and operation of power systems. However, electricity data are well known for their nonlinearity and multi-seasonal features, making it challenging to construct forecasting models. This study investigates the combination of singular spectrum analysis to facilitate the construction of decomposition-based forecasting approaches for electricity load. First, we demonstrate and emphasize the importance of separability for specifically extracting different features hidden in the original data; moreover, only by using the separable feature subseries, the constructed individual model can capture the inner and distinct characteristics of original series more effectively. Second, this study decomposes the electricity load into several significant features using singular spectrum analysis. Each feature series is predicted separately to construct aggregate results. In particular, we propose SSA-based period decomposition to not only perform separable decomposition but also overcome the border effect, which has received little attention in previous work. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we conduct an empirical study and compare the performance of the discussed models. The empirical results show that the proposed approach can obtain the expected forecasting performance and is a reliable and promising tool for extracting different features.