Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in the southern part of the Heihe River Basin (China), 1984-2014

Abstract

Local precipitation variations in the context of global warming are a hot topic in the climate change research community. Using daily precipitation data spanning from 1984 to 2014 from 25 meteorological stations, the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation were analyzed for the southern part of Heihe River Basin (HRB), which is the second-largest inland river basin in Northwest China. Linear trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the moving t-test were employed in the study. Results showed that the regional annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a slope of 13.1 mm per decade from 1984 to 2014. The increasing trend was detected at 21 sites and the first EOF illustrating the regional increasing trend explained 51.8% of the total variance. The increasing trend of annual precipitation was mainly due to an increase in autumn precipitation, while summer precipitation exhibited a weak declining trend and spring-winter precipitation remained unchanged. Moreover, the increasing precipitation trendwasmainly caused by an abrupt increase around 1997, when the global warming hiatus occurred. Through 1997, the atmospheric circulation and physical structure, such as vertical upward motion, vapor transmission, and its convergence changed to be more favorable for precipitation in autumn, but unfavorable for precipitation in summer in the HRB.