Analysis of the Effect of Macroprudential and Macroprudential Indicators on the Stock Price Index of Islamic Banks in Indonesia Using the Error Correction Model

Abstract

The experience of various crises that have occurred, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, presents a challenge to implement macroprudential policies to ensure the financial system survives and continues to carry out its function in driving the economy. The existing microprudential policies tend to be individual and focus on prudent banking and other financial institutions. Economic fluctuations that occur on the macro side will greatly impact, either directly or indirectly, on the stock price index, as well as the company's internal indicators which are considered to have a major influence on the decisions of investors and potential investors to take action on the stock exchange. The type of research used in this research is quantitative research. The nature of this research is descriptive with a quantitative approach. The data collection technique in this research is Literature Study. The test carried out in this study is the multiple linear regression analysis test (multiple linear regression method), this study uses the ECM model to obtain the best model which includes the classical assumption test. The results of this study based on the partial short-term relationship test, it can be concluded that the Exchange Rate, Inflation and TPF in the short term have no significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Meanwhile, short-term CAR has a significant positive effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Based on the results of the partial long-term relationship test, it can be concluded that in the long term the Exchange Rate has a significant negative effect and TPF and CAR have a significant positive effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index while Inflation has no significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Based on the output results of the simultaneous short-term and long-term F test, it shows that all independent variables simultaneously have a significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index in the short term. Based on the provisions of the MUI DSN through the issued fatwas related to the sharia capital market and sharia shares, it is explained that sharia stock investment with the aim of investing according to the perspective of sharia economic law is allowed