Temporal trends in heart failure mortality in an integrated healthcare delivery system, California, and the US, 2001–2017

Abstract

Background: In recent years, decreases in mortality rates attributable to cardiovascular diseases have slowed but mortality attributable to heart failure (HF) has increased. Methods: Between 2001–2017, trends in age-adjusted mortality with HF as an underlying cause for Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) members were derived through linkage with state death files and compared with trends among California residents and the US. Average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Joinpoint regression. Analyses were repeated examining HF as a contributing cause of death. Results: In KPSC, the age-adjusted HF mortality rates were comparable to California but lower than the US, increasing from 23.9 per 100,000 person-years (PY) in 2001 to 44.7 per 100,000 PY in 2017, representing an AAPC of 1.3% (95% CI 0.0%, 2.6%). HF mortality also increased in California from 33.9 to 46.5 per 100,000 PY (AAPC 1.5%, 95% CI 0.3%, 2.7%), while remaining unchanged in the US at 57.9 per 100,000 PY in 2001 and 2017 (AAPC 0.0%, 95% CI − 0.5%, 0.5%). Trends among KPSC members ≥ 65 years old were similar to the overall population, while trends among members 45–64 years old were flat between 2001–2017. Small changes in mortality with HF as a contributing cause were observed in KPSC members between 2001 and 2017, which differed from California and the US. Conclusion: Lower rates of HF mortality were observed in KPSC compared to the US. Given the aging of the US population and increasing prevalence of HF, it will be important to examine individual and care-related factors driving susceptibility to HF mortality.