Sensitivity analysis of WOFOST for yield simulation of cassava over the major growing areas of India

Abstract

A study was conducted to assess the meteorological sensitivity of the WOFOST crop model in simulating the yield of cassava. The sensitivity was designed by changing the present meteorological data by ±1 to ±5 %. The results has shown the minimum temperature influencing the yield of cassava (variation: 4.94 to-7.65 %) followed by the maximum temperature (yield variation: 6.39 to-6.03 %) and solar radiation (yield variation:-2.41 to 2.07 %). The trends of these meteorological variables have been further analyzed over the major cassava growing regions in India to link its variations with cassava production. A significant trend has been detected during the monsoon season in northeast India, with a decadal change of 0.63ºC. At the same time, a significant trend was detected in the peninsular region during the winter season, with a value of 0.74ºC/decade. The rate of solar dimming in northeast India during the monsoon season was-0.53 hour/decade and during the autumn season, it was-0.25 hour/decade, respectively. The meteorological sensitivity of crop model on its yield and trends may assist the decision-makers in developing appropriate plans mitigations strategies to enhance crop production to ensure food security.