Neural Networks Forecast Models Comparison for the Solar Energy Generation in Amazon Basin

Abstract

Deep learning has grown among the prediction tools used within renewable energy options. Solar energy belongs to the options with the lowest atmosphere impact after considering their limitations. In the last five years, Brazil has seen the expansion of wind and solar options almost all over the country, and to preserve the Amazon rainforest, the use of solar energy has helped large and small cities towards a greener future. The novelty of this research covers the use of Deep Learning with data from twelve cities in the state of Amazonas to forecast solar irradiation (W.h/ m2) within 30 days. The data input came from ground stations, as much as possible, and NASA satellite models, with a daily time aggregation. The types of neural networks considered are Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and an LSTM Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Among the metrics used to check the algorithm's performance, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicates that the values of this research are coherent with other scenarios to forecast solar energy; the boundary conditions were not the same, however. The lowest MAPE was observed in the city of Labrea with the LSTM GRU.