A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN ARGENTINA USING THE SEIR MODEL

Abstract

A pandemic caused by a new corona virus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighboring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honor the data, we show different cases. In all of them the reproduction ratio R0 decreases after early lockdown, but then raises, probably due to an increase in the community circulation of the virus. Therefore it is mandatory to reverse this growing trend in R0 by applying control strategies to avoid a high number of infectious and dead individuals. The model provides an effective procedure to estimate epidemic parameters (fatality rate, transmission probability, and infection and incubation periods) and monitor control measures during the epidemic evolution.