Comparison of Climate Change Effects on Wheat Production under Different Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in North Kazakhstan

Abstract

Adverse weather conditions, once rare anomalies, are now becoming increasingly commonplace, causing heavy losses to crops and livestock. One of the most immediate and far-reaching concerns is the potential impact on agricultural productivity and global food security. Although studies combining crop models and future climate data have been previously carried out, such research work in Central Asia is limited in the international literature. The current research aims to harness the predictive capabilities of the CRAFT (CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox) to predict and comprehend the ramifications stemming from three distinct RCPs, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, on wheat yield. As a result, the arid steppe zone was found to be the most sensitive to an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, since the yield difference between RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 accounted for almost 110 kg/ha (16.4%) and for 77.1 kg/ha (10.4%) between RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, followed by the small hilly zone with an average loss of 90.1 and 58.5 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–8.5 and RCPs 4.5–8.5, respectively. The research findings indicated the loss of more than 10% of wheat in the arid steppe zone, 7.6% in the small hilly zone, 7.5% in the forest steppe zone, and 6% in the colo steppe zone due to climate change if the modeled RCP 8.5 scenario occurs without any technological modernization and genetic modification. The average wheat yield failure in the North Kazakhstan region accounted for 25.2, 59.5, and 84.7 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–4.5, 4.5–8.5, and 2.6–8.5, respectively, which could lead to food disasters at a regional scale. Overall, the CRAFT using the DSSAT crop modeling system, combined with the climate predictions, showed great potential in assessing climate change effects on wheat yield under different climate scenarios in the North Kazakhstan region. We believe that the results obtained will be helpful during the development and zoning of modified, drought-resistant wheat varieties and the cultivation of new crops in the region.