Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Acute Hypotensive Events in Intensive Care Unit Patients

Abstract

Background: Persistent hypotension in the intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with increased mortality. Predicting acute hypotensive events can lead to timely intervention. We aimed to develop a prediction model of acute hypotensive events in patients admitted to the ICU. Methods: We included adult patients admitted to the Nagoya City University (NCU) Hospital ICU between January 2018 and December 2021 for model training and internal validation. The MIMIC-III database was used for external validation. A hypotensive event was defined as a mean arterial pressure < 60 mmHg for at least 5 min in 10 min. The input features were age, sex, and time-series data for vital signs. We compared the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of three machine-learning algorithms: logistic regression, the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and long short-term memory (LSTM). Results: Acute hypotensive events were found in 1325/1777 (74.6%) and 2691/5266 (51.1%) of admissions in the NCU and MIMIC-III cohorts, respectively. In the internal validation, the LightGBM model had the highest AUROC (0.835), followed by the LSTM (AUROC 0.834) and logistic regression (AUROC 0.821) models. Applying only blood pressure-related features, the LSTM model achieved the highest AUROC (0.843) and consistently showed similar results in external and internal validation. Conclusions: The LSTM model using only blood pressure-related features had the highest AUROC with comparable performance in external validation.