Wolbachia infection dynamics in mosquito population with the CI effect suffering by uninfected ova produced by infected females

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a great threat to humans’ health. Wolbachia is a promising biological weapon to control the mosquito population, and is not harmful to humans’ health, environment, and ecology. In this work, we present a stage-structure model to investigate the effective releasing strategies for Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes. Besides some key factors for Wolbachia infection, the CI effect suffering by uninfected ova produced by infected females, which is often neglected, is also incorporated. We analyze the conditions under which Wolbachia infection still can be established even if the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations manifest that the threshold value of infected mosquitoes required to be released at the beginning can be evaluated by the stable manifold of a saddle equilibrium, and low levels of MK effect, fitness costs, as well as high levels of CI effect and maternal inheritance all contribute to the establishment of Wolbachia-infection. Moreover, our results suggest that ignoring the CI effect suffering by uninfected ova produced by infected females may result in the overestimation of the threshold infection level for the Wolbachia invasion.