WHO WINS ON THE BLACK SEA? REGIONAL POWER COMPETITION AND THE ROLE OF TÜRKİYE

Abstract

The Black Sea region has emerged as a critical geopolitical hotspot, shaped by the intersection of great power competition, regional rivalries, and transnational security challenges. This paper examines Türkiye's evolving strategic role in the Black Sea, emphasizing its position as a key actor in the contest for influence among NATO, the European Union, and Russia. Türkiye’s historical ties, geostrategic location, and military modernization have positioned it as both a regional stabilizer and a challenger to external influences. Drawing on the interplay between Türkiye's balancing diplomacy and its assertive foreign policy, the paper assesses how Ankara navigates its dual role as a NATO ally and a state with its own regional ambitions. Through an analysis of Türkiye’s maritime strategy, economic interests, and security policies, the research explores its pivotal contributions to the regional security architecture, including its leadership in initiatives such as the Montreux Convention and the Black Sea Harmony operations. Additionally, the study evaluates Türkiye's relationships with key Black Sea stakeholders, including Ukraine, Russia, and Romania, and highlights the implications of its actions for broader Euro-Atlantic security. The paper concludes by reflecting on whether Türkiye's current trajectory enhances its ability to shape outcomes in the Black Sea or risks undermining its strategic autonomy amid intensifying global tensions. The study is based on qualitative analysis of primary sources, policy documents, and expert interviews, offering insights into Türkiye’s potential to act as a regional powerbroker in a contested and rapidly transforming geopolitical landscape.